the man is a hellava capper....
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width=432 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>ST LOUIS –6.5 Tampa Bay 42.5
2-0-0/0-2-0 15-14
We saved the best for last with this game. Tampa Bay will be my first 4% play of the year. Keep it simple and use discipline and play it as it is, just a 4% play, which is only 1% more than the normal play. I went against NO last week with a play on Tampa Bay because an average offense can beat a below average defense and an above average defense can stop a good offense enough to win the game. Not a lot changes here this week. We get a defense, which is actually worse than NO but an offense, which is actually better than NO. As I said last week, the Tampa Bay offense isn’t that bad. For the year, they are about average, but have faced some good defenses, which have kept their numbers down. They are averaging 3.6ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. They averaged 7.7yps last week and 5.6yppl last week against a poor NO defense. This week they will face an equally, and actually even worse Rams defense, which is allowing 5.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. That means TB should average closer to around 6.0yppl in this game. Those are pretty good numbers for a team getting 6.5 points. Going the other way, they will face a better offense this week, which averages 4.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. But the terrific Rams offense will face a solid TB defense, allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. That means, based on those numbers, the Rams will probably average closer to 5.8yppl in this game. Being at home, the Rams will probably average a little better than that, and being on the road, TB will probably average a little worse than the 6.0yppl. But, the numbers will still be close enough for a line this high to favor the dog. The Rams, after their last two wins, qualify in a letdown situation, which is my best situation. That situation is 93-24-2 and plays against the Rams here. That’s nearly 80% winners on 117 plays. That same situation played against Baltimore when they played Kansas City two Monday nights ago. KC controlled that game from start to finish and I expect more of the same here. The Rams won last week to go one game over .500 but that only sets them up in a situation that suggests they are due to let up after finally getting over .500. That situation playing against the Rams is now 54-26-1. TB also qualifies in a contrary situation, which plays on teams getting a handful of points, which is 125-57-5 and the fact TB allowed NO to rush for 5.0ypr last week sets them up in a defensive bounce back situation, which is 165-97-9. Before the situations are accounted for, my final numbers favor the Rams by eight and 7.5 points. After accounting for the situations, this game is closer to TB by one point. Final numbers also suggest about 41 points being scored. I don’t have a great feeling on the total but I do have two situations, which play the under in this game, which are 322-240-1 and 149-78-2. TB covered here in 1999 in the NFL Championship game, losing 6-11 as 14.5 point dogs, covered at home against the Rams in 2000 as two point dogs, 38-35, covered here on a Monday night in 2001 as 10 point dogs, winning the game straight up, 24-17, and won at home in 2002 on a Monday night, as three point dogs, 26-14. They win again. TAMPA BAY 21 ST LOUIS 20
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width=432 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>ST LOUIS –6.5 Tampa Bay 42.5
2-0-0/0-2-0 15-14
We saved the best for last with this game. Tampa Bay will be my first 4% play of the year. Keep it simple and use discipline and play it as it is, just a 4% play, which is only 1% more than the normal play. I went against NO last week with a play on Tampa Bay because an average offense can beat a below average defense and an above average defense can stop a good offense enough to win the game. Not a lot changes here this week. We get a defense, which is actually worse than NO but an offense, which is actually better than NO. As I said last week, the Tampa Bay offense isn’t that bad. For the year, they are about average, but have faced some good defenses, which have kept their numbers down. They are averaging 3.6ypr against 3.8ypr, 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. They averaged 7.7yps last week and 5.6yppl last week against a poor NO defense. This week they will face an equally, and actually even worse Rams defense, which is allowing 5.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. That means TB should average closer to around 6.0yppl in this game. Those are pretty good numbers for a team getting 6.5 points. Going the other way, they will face a better offense this week, which averages 4.9ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. But the terrific Rams offense will face a solid TB defense, allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. That means, based on those numbers, the Rams will probably average closer to 5.8yppl in this game. Being at home, the Rams will probably average a little better than that, and being on the road, TB will probably average a little worse than the 6.0yppl. But, the numbers will still be close enough for a line this high to favor the dog. The Rams, after their last two wins, qualify in a letdown situation, which is my best situation. That situation is 93-24-2 and plays against the Rams here. That’s nearly 80% winners on 117 plays. That same situation played against Baltimore when they played Kansas City two Monday nights ago. KC controlled that game from start to finish and I expect more of the same here. The Rams won last week to go one game over .500 but that only sets them up in a situation that suggests they are due to let up after finally getting over .500. That situation playing against the Rams is now 54-26-1. TB also qualifies in a contrary situation, which plays on teams getting a handful of points, which is 125-57-5 and the fact TB allowed NO to rush for 5.0ypr last week sets them up in a defensive bounce back situation, which is 165-97-9. Before the situations are accounted for, my final numbers favor the Rams by eight and 7.5 points. After accounting for the situations, this game is closer to TB by one point. Final numbers also suggest about 41 points being scored. I don’t have a great feeling on the total but I do have two situations, which play the under in this game, which are 322-240-1 and 149-78-2. TB covered here in 1999 in the NFL Championship game, losing 6-11 as 14.5 point dogs, covered at home against the Rams in 2000 as two point dogs, 38-35, covered here on a Monday night in 2001 as 10 point dogs, winning the game straight up, 24-17, and won at home in 2002 on a Monday night, as three point dogs, 26-14. They win again. TAMPA BAY 21 ST LOUIS 20
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